Why is more energy generation needed?

The UK’s path to Net Zero

The Climate Change Committee recommends that the UK adopts a Sixth Carbon Budget to require a reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions of 78% by 2035 relative to 1990. This translates to a 63% reduction from 2019.

The Fifth Carbon Budget aimed for an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 whereas the Sixth is more ambitious and aims for a 100% reduction in emissions by 2050.

The Committee recognises that its targets are challenging but also hugely advantageous since they create new industrial opportunities and ensure wider gains for the nation’s health and for nature.

The 2020s must be the decisive decade of progress and action.

The Sixth Carbon Budget can be met through four key steps which includes the expansion of low-carbon energy supplies. UK electricity production is zero carbon by 2035. At present, it is envisaged that offshore wind becomes the backbone of the whole UK energy system, growing from the Prime Minister’s promised 40GW in 2030 to 100GW or more by 2050. With this proposed increase, there will be new uses for this clean electricity in transport, heating and industry, pushing up electricity demand by a half over the next 15 years, and doubling or even trebling demand by 2050.

Cost and investment

There is a significant cost and investment required to get to Net Zero, estimated at an additional £50bn each year above existing investment (which is expected to be mostly privately funded). This capital expenditure will be investment in:

  • Renewable sources of energy, and increasing the capacity of the electrical distribution network

  • Low carbon technology

  • Replacement of high carbon assets with low carbon assets at the end of their life

These changes will result in a huge fuel saving to the UK economy which, depending on the assessment. almost cancels out the costs.

The positive effects

The balanced pathway proposed will lead to a positive economic impact, boosting activity and employment across the country.

The Sixth Carbon Budget makes it clear that now is the perfect time to invest, allowing us to front-load the next 30 years while interest rates are at record lows and the economy has spare capacity. The assessments show that long-term fuel savings realised by using electricity instead of fossil fuels could have a positive overall effect on UK GDP.

In the 2020s we shall see major action taken to scale up the following, in order to deliver Net Zero carbon:

  • Offshore wind installation

  • Hydrogen production

  • Heat pump installation

  • Electric vehicle charging infrastructure

  • Carbon Capture and Storage industrial clusters

By 2030, the expectation is that all new capital investment and asset purchases are zero carbon.

By 2050, the following major changes are expected to energy delivery across the economy:

  • 75% reduction in the use of natural gas compared to today replaced with renewable electricity and hydrogen

  • 85% reduction in oil use across all sectors except aviation

  • An expected doubling or trebling of the demand for electricity

  • Scaling up of hydrogen across sectors including manufacturing, shipping and backup power. In the short-term this is expected to be mostly blue hydrogen but green hydrogen is proposed for the longer-term.

The one source that has been omitted is tidal energy and, in particular, tidal range generation. This form of generation has the potential to deliver 100% reliable and predictable electricity. This could be up to 20% of the UK’s supply needs with up to 10% from the Great Western Power Barrage alone. There is no other source of renewable energy that can make such a substantial contribution to meeting the UK’s Net Zero challenge.

Zero carbon commitments

The climate change narrative is shifting rapidly; up to February 2021 there have been Net Zero commitments from the UK, EU, South Korea, Japan, China, and most recently the USA. This equates to over ½ of global emissions, and ¾ of the global economy.